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Date: April 30, 2024 Tue
Time: 1:27 am
Time: 1:27 am
Results for drug trafficking (canada)
1 results foundAuthor: Bouchard, Martin Title: Estimating the Size of the Canadian Illicit Meth and MDMA Markets: A Multi-Method Approach Summary: This study addresses the lack of reliable estimates on the scope of amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS: amphetamine, methamphetamine, ecstasy/MDMA) production in Canada. Such a study allows for a thorough assessment of Canada’s role in global ATS production and exportation. Using a multi-method approach, this research derives more accurate estimates of: the total number of ATS users in Canada than currently exists, including an estimate of the quantity of ATS consumed domestically; the total number of actors active on the supply side of ATS markets than currently exists; the total production volume of ATS in Canada than currently exists, including an estimate of the number of active ATS labs; and, the total amount of ATS exported from Canada. This report begins with a literature review of patterns in ATS use and production within and beyond Canada. Drawing from this past research, a series of methods and data sources that will allow the production of an estimate of the size of these populations for the present study are laid out. The remainder of the report presents the results from the various estimation methods that were applied to assess the size of various segments of the ATS market in Canada. The conclusion provides the main highlights and recommendations from the overall study. The review of the literature on trafficking and production found that there is too much uncertainty in regards to the existing data to truly assess the role of Canada in the global ATS trade. There are no established estimates of the size of production and the amount of ATS lab seizures remains low. While Canada ranked 6th in the world in the amount of methamphetamine seized in 2007 with 1.54 metric tons, the figure for the previous years was as low as 60kg. Finally, the review found that two methods for estimating the size of the ATS market in Canada (multiplier methods and capture-recapture methods) have shown more promise in obtaining reliable estimates of illegal populations, including drug dealers and producers. To derive these estimates, existing survey, arrest, and seizure data were used. Procedures used included multiplier methods, synthetic estimation methods, capture-recapture methods, and economic modeling methods. When possible, two methods were used to estimate a segment of the market. In most analyses, the diverse methods yielded consistent results, but much more research is required to provide further validation of this study’s results. Working with small and sparse data increases the levels of uncertainty that already exist in these estimation exercises. This report should be approached as a first step in developing standard methods that academics and policy makers can use to make systematic assessments of the ATS and other illicit drug markets in Canada and beyond. Our efforts should therefore be viewed as an exploration that lays the groundwork for a Canada-wide study with a strong emphasis on collecting fieldwork data. Assessments of the demand-side of the ATS market, based on synthetic estimation techniques, suggest that there are roughly 52,000 meth users and 270,000 ecstasy users in Canada. This estimate is based on a low count of data which combines the general population that is twelve years and older, the homeless population, and the inmate population. This total count of 320,000 likely underestimates the population of ATS consumers. Adjustments for 50% underreporting (high count) suggest a much larger total population of about 480,000 users (77,788 meth users and 402,677 ecstasy users). The assessment of the supply-side of this market relied on arrest data. The market is predominately male, but no more so than other illegal drug markets and crime settings in general. The population estimates suggest that steep increase occurred between 1999 and 2009 in Quebec, echoing what has been found through other indicators in Canada. One limit in our analysis was that we were unable to provide a valid estimate of importers, exporters, and producers. These populations are small, captured offenders have a higher likelihood of being incarcerated for longer time periods (and thus be unavailable for recapture), and simply not enough offenders get re-arrested in Quebec for these methods to be usable. The populations of meth and ecstasy dealers were estimated using both capture-recapture and multiplier estimates. Based on arrest data from Quebec, the capture-recapture estimate resulted in 3,458 meth dealers and 4,561 ecstasy dealers in Quebec. This allowed us to infer Canadian populations of 14,303 meth dealers and 16 980 ecstasy dealers. Results from the multiplier procedure for Canada that was based on a user:dealer ratio provided some validation at the higher end for meth and lower end for ecstasy—the population of meth dealers was estimated from a low of 3,457 to a high of 11,113 dealers, while the population of ecstasy dealers was estimated from a low of 17,897 to a high of 57,525 dealers. Once again, the substantial range that emerges from the multiplier procedure calls for considerable caution and additional verification with different data sources from a variety of regions. Estimates of the population of labs and producers were derived using diverse methods. The number of ATS labs was estimated using an economic model. This estimate ranged from a low of 560 labs to a high of 1,400 ATS labs in Canada. Such information was subsequently carried over to estimate the number of producers in the country. A ratio of 3.5 producers per lab was established, resulting in an estimated low of 1,960 ATS producers if 560 labs were in operation to a high of 4,900 producers if 1,400 labs were in operation in Canada. Both ATS production and consumption were estimated in order to arrive at a final estimate of how much meth could be reasonably exported from Canada. Such an analysis would lend some substance to persistent claims and debate regarding Canada’s pivotal position in the international ATS trade. Using the results from the economic model as a starting point, overall production was estimated at 2,297 kg if the lower-end 560 labs scenario was accurate and 5,743 kg if the higher-end 1,400 labs scenario was accurate. Such results must be approached with caution since the estimates are based on a single cook per lab in a given year—it may very well be the case that ATS labs produce multiple batches and will likely yield much larger quantities than we estimate. Adjusting these estimates to two ‘cooks’ per lab resulted in a low-end estimate of 4,594 kg and high-end estimate of 11,485 kg of meth in Canada. Depending on the scenario, Canadian producers would export between 38% and 75% of domestic ATS production. Using a multiplier method to derive a quantity per user ratio, meth consumption for Canada was estimated between 678 kg and 847 kg. Ecstasy consumption was estimated between 1,643 and 2,054 kg. Combining meth and ecstasy resulted in a total ATS consumption range of 2,321 to 2,902 kg in Canada. Based on mid-point estimates for consumption and seizure data, an excess of 1,733 kg to 8,624 kg of Canadian ATS was estimated for annual exportation. This would suggest that 38% (if 1733 kg of production) or 75% (if 8624 kg of production) of ATS produced in Canada is exported. Information was also added regarding the quantity of Canadian produced ATS overseas to produce an estimate of any ATS unaccounted for by Canadian users or law enforcement agencies around the world. This suggested that an excess of 288 to 7,179 kg of ATS was available for consumption overseas after domestic and international seizures and consumption were subtracted from overall production. The estimates produced for the purpose of this report suggest that Canada produces as little as 0.6% of the world’s supply or as much as 4.6%. Canada would not be considered as a major ATS producer under most standards. Based on the estimates produced in this report, Canada is no more and no less of a player today than it was five years ago. Five specific recommendations could improve these estimates over the long term: establish a more concerted effort to monitor national trends in synthetic drug markets, especially on the supply side; monitor trends in domestic illegal ATS precursor importation; monitor trends in Canadian produced synthetic drugs in other countries; adopt wastewater analysis as a method to estimate the quantity of ATS used in large Canadian cities; and make use of capture-recapture methods for the purpose of estimating the size of illegal markets a priority for Canada as a whole. Details: Ottawa: Research and National Coordination, Organized Crime Division, Law Enforcement and Policing Branch, Public Safety Canada, 2012. 75p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 19, 2012 at: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/sp-ps/PS4-125-2012-eng.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Canada URL: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/sp-ps/PS4-125-2012-eng.pdf Shelf Number: 125690 Keywords: Drug Abuse and AddictionDrug Trafficking (Canada)Drug Trafficking ControlEcstasyMethamphetamines |